Modelling the socioeconomic impacts of zero carbon housing in Europe

Abstract

By rolling out a wave of climate-friendly renovations and heat pumps in homes, Europe can save the equivalent of a quarter of current Russian gas imports by 2030, significantly reducing its dependence on volatile gas imports and enhancing its energy security. As a result, the annual spending on gas imports is projected to go down by €15 billion within a decade and by €43 billion in 2050.

Upgrading homes could also deliver important social and economic benefits, as Europe recovers from the Covid-19 crisis and households are strained by high gas prices. A shift to energy-efficient and electrified homes would create many thousands of new jobs, boost Europe’s GDP, slash consumers’ energy bills and increase the disposable income of the poorest households.

There is a clear relationship between the deployment of heat pumps and socio-economic benefits in the scenarios; the larger the uptake of heat pumps, the greater the socio-economic benefits. The transition to energy-efficient and electrified buildings is projected to deliver greater benefits than a shift to green hydrogen for heating.